Walk offs can be devastating to a team, even a pitcher who gives up the big fly on the road can shake his confidence to the core. Baseball, more than any sport is a game of momentum not only from a team on a winning streak, but the individual hitter, who is either in a slump or on fire.
Betting against the team who just got their ass handed to them in a walk off the night/day before is not a 100% spot play the next day, but it sure does help especially if all the other stats and situational pitching match ups come into play with an overwhelming projected .ERA mismatch for that particular game.
Let’s look at just a couple examples in the last week. The Royals had just taken 2 of 3 in Fenway, and swaggered in to Camden Yard with Duffy on the mound, it was looking sweet scoring in the first inning, with Duff only giving up a run in the 5th, they came in tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 9th, then O’s get the big walk off single to win it. What was the result after that? A three game sweep by the O’s.
How about last Sunday night ESPN game of the week on national TV? Dodgers/Giants going into the bottom of the 11th with the Giants scoring the go ahead run in the top of the inning, then Rookie Kyle Farmer with his first major league at bat gets the game decider with a two run double walk off win in the bottom of the 11th. Result next day, Giants get crushed in Oakland 8-5.
I find another tell, when I hear broadcasters who are so close to the team members, still talking about it in the next game that gives off an aura that it was a huge downer for the team. It does stay with them in most cases.
Last night we went 3-2 with double crush shot winner backing the Detroit left hander Boyd +135 money 7-5 win vs the O’s. Other winners: Giants 11-2 vs A’s, LAD/ATL Ov8 7-4 winner Loss column NYY/Clev Ov 8 Final 5-1, Det/O’s Un 10.5 Final 7-5
One release here for tonight that is not on our service but have a small move on the METS backing the right hander Degrom +109 on the ML going against Darvish in his first start with LA on the road, since coming over from the Rangers.
We have released 5 plays again for tonight.
Tommy Mac, Las Vegas